MARKET UPDATE

05.06.20

Q1 DURING A GLOBAL PANDEMIC

SYDNEE LUBAR

BoF X McKinsey predict 27-30% decline in fashion industry sales post Coronavirus

  • There has been about a 60% decrease in apparel spending in the U.S & Europe

  • They believe that the industry’s comeback could be in 2020 with 2-4% in sales

COVID-19 has tipped the iceberg for many major department stores, as many file for bankruptcy, 4 major spotlights being Neiman Marcus Group, JCPenny, Lord & Taylor, J. Crew

Leaders reflect on the state of their economy, as China’s first-quarter GDP dropped 6.8%

One of the biggest apparel manufacturers in the world, Bangladesh, was predicted to lose $6 billion this year. This recently reopened about 850 factories to combat this.

On May 4th, Macy’s reopened 68 of their stores. It is expected that this U.S department store will open even more soon.

On a similar note, with restrictions, Ohio, Texas, and Alabama are US states that have opened some of their retail stores. It is reported that France will begin to reopen stores on May 8th and Italy on May 18th.

Luxury sales are down, as consumers are changing their spending habits and travel is restricted

  • The luxury sector has been hit hard…down 39-35%

  • One example is Gucci: 22% drop first-quarter sales

Amazon was up about 30% in Q1 but Q2 predictions tell a different story with a possible operating lose of up to $1.5 billion

 

  • It is evident that the more online purchasing on Amazon, the more money this e-commerce giant will need to spend on workers, transportation, and sufficient inventory 

Stock Insights:

 

Kering

French Luxury Group, houses include Balenciaga, Alexander McQueen, & Bottega

 

Q1 Stats and Impact from COVID-19:

  • 15.4% overall decline amongst luxury houses

  • 22% decline in Gucci's sales

 

Gucci has always been heavily dependent on China for Sales. Since brick-and-mortar stores closes, Gucci's ecommerce rose to be 9.5% of their overall sales.

 

13% decline in Saint Laurent's sales, as they rely on Western European buyers.

TheRealReal

Luxury consignment company 

Q1 Stats and Impact from COVID-19:

  • Closed brick-and-mortar retail locations & online retail has slowed

  • 10% of employees laid off & 15% of employees furloughed 

Shares increased at the end of April in response to growing optimism amongst investors in regard to U.S retail.

They will report Q1 earnings in May; it is expected that they will lose about $40 million. 

Investors are still optimistic about the potential of this retailer: they have no debt, yet experts believe that consumers will be hesitant to buy used items during / after a pandemic. 

Adidas

Second largest sportswear manufacturer in the world based out of Germany 

Q1 Stats and Impact from COVID-19:

  • Profit dropped 93%

  • 70% of brick-and-mortar stores closed

  • E-commerce rose by 35%

Adidas was approved on April 14 to have government backed loan. 

L Brands

Umbrella company to retail brands; Victoria's Secret, PINK, Bath & Body Works 

Q1 Stats and Impact from COVID-19:

  • Shut down Bath & Body Works, Victoria's Secret brick-and-mortar stores in U.S & Canada

  • Furloughed majority of employees & cut costs, including salaries and payments

  • Sales decreased by 46.6% in March

Further complications with private equity firm, Sycamore Partners, as they originally planned to buy a majority stake in Victoria's Secret

It will be important in the upcoming months to keep an eye on this deal and evaluate whether or not Baath & Body works would accumulate enough sales for L Brands to be their dominant company.