top of page

SALES UPDATE: 12.07.22

Lily Wachtel

Holiday Cheer is Finally Here

Christmas lights have been put up, Thanksgiving is officially behind us, and everyone is looking forward to the holiday atmosphere soon to come - especially in the fashion industry. There is an estimate of about 166 million people taking part in this year’s shopping season.

After two years of Covid craziness and holiday season shopping being all messed up, retailers are hopeful that this year will be the one that finally returns to full normalcy. With that being said, shoppers are confused as to whether or not they should buy sooner or later, purchase their usual amounts of presents or only prioritize a few, trust the online delivery services or just visit local shops? The National Retail Federation predicts that holiday sales this coming session will increase from 6 to 8% from last year’s sales. Both low and medium income consumers each saw a 21% increase in optimism for the coming holiday shop.

However, the mixture of both inflation and even TikTok’s influence has shoppers realizing the spending season may not be as favorable this year. 72% of U.S. survey respondents, according to McKinsey & Company, expect to pay more for gifts this year, so bargains are being looked at; there is even an increase in the use of promotional emails from retailer websites.

Numbers from previous holiday shopping seasons indicate that a major portion of holiday retail sales is attributed to online stores. It is predicted that for this year, retail sales from e-commerce will comprise 16.3% of total retail sales. With this year’s past Cyber Monday, its revenue has proven to be the highest yet, especially with sales now being completed through TikTok and Instagram stories rather than just online websites.

The typical crazy shopping season of the year is upon us and here are some stocks to be aware of when running around looking for the perfect gift.

It isn’t the true holiday season if Amazon is not being talked about! Amazon has truthfully had a more disappointing year which leads into them heading into the holidays carrying investor sentiment. But with the stock down over 45% YTD (Year to Date) as of November 4th, 2022, many analysts see long-term value in the stock. As a matter of fact, the average 12-month price target is $142.29; this suggests a strong 36% upside over the next year, maybe even the next few months with the holiday season shop right around the corner.
Their current market value is around $6.1 billion and their revenue is set to jump over 50% this year and then another 22% the following year. Profits are also rising steadily; set to rise 32% from 79 cents in earnings per share in fiscal 2020 to $1.04 per share this year. For the year of 2022, earnings are projected to rise another 15% to $1.23 per share, which is super favorable as Revolve is now seen as one of the best retail stocks to believe in this coming shopping season.

This once super popular brand is up and coming again. Their current market value is around $2.7 billion and it was definitely at one point a force to be reckoned with in the U.S. The stock went from more than $80 per share before the 2008 financial crisis to less than $20 a share by early 2009. Investors bid shares up more than 15% over a two-day time span this spring as the substance of its recovery started to become clear! Since then, the company has made continued improvements to its operations; it has the right infrastructure to compete digitally in both the holiday season and in years to come, which is great for Abercrombie & Fitch!

Investors were thrilled to see that Macy’s falling revenue was not as bad as investors had feared, leading to spikes in its stock price. Investors are now hoping this jump in price will hold into the depth of this year’s shopping season! Macy’s ultimately was able to beat earnings per share expectations.

Another insanely popular place to be during the holiday season! Target was able to fuel double-digit revenue growth and about a 3x return from the lows below approximately $100 per share. For this year’s holiday season, Target also grew an ally known as Disney!

bottom of page