MARKET UPDATE 09.24.21

JENSEN GUTZWILLER

CURRENT MARKET
Historically high levels of savings, strong job growth and rising wages are aiding the economic recovery and overall retail sector.

- However, economists have downgraded estimates for economic growth in the third quarter due to the Delta variant and continued supply chain buildups. Recent projections put GDP’s expansion at a 5% annual rate from July through September which is a 2% decrease from the prior predictions.

- Despite this, economists are optimistic that retail sales could recover quickly as vaccinations increase, people feel safe enough to assume normal activities, and shortages ease.


LOOK BACK AT IT
- Retail sales rose earlier in the summer, as shoppers spent up on services and less on goods.
- In comparison to July 2020, July 2021 saw sales of apparel and jewelry each rise about 80% over the same period.

Inflation: In the near term, investors foresee inflation staying high for longer than anticipated by the Fed. The market puts a 39% chance of inflation coming in above 3% over the next five years (Minneapolis Fed).


“DON'T CALL IT A COMEBACK, I BEEN HERE FOR YEARS” - NIKE OR LL COOL J?
FT. THE NIKE DUNK
Born a basketball shoe turned skateboard staple, you can’t walk around campus or a gameday without running into more than a few Nike classics. As one of the most collectible shoes of all time, with its 2021 resurfacing, we wanted to take the time to commend the brand, the shoe and highlight the story.

- In 1962 with only $1,200, University of Oregon track & field coach Bill Bowerman founded Nike.
- The original iconic swoosh logo designed by a Penn State student in a competition won her the $35 prize (and later $1MM worth of Nike stock)!
- The first Nike trainer was developed by pouring rubber into a waffle iron which created a new shoe sole texture that had never been done before.

(1972) The Cortez was born, earning fame through appearances in the Olympics and in Forrest Gump.
(1982) The Nike Air force 1 was created.
(1984) The Air Jordan 1 and the Jumpman logo were created.
(1985) The Nike Dunk High was released, marketed by the “Be True To Your School” campaign which offered basketball teams & fans a way to sport their team’s colors. U of M even made it their official shoe!
(1990) Nike opened its first retail location

Cheap, accessible, supportive, and providing the perfect balance between cushioning and traction, the Nike Dunk became every Skater’s staple. Despite the following today, originally skater’s stuck with eS Footwear, DC and Vans because they viewed Nike as “just another large corporation attempting to enter their world”.

Only after the sneaker had been mocked and rejected, did skaters really give it a shot. Now, having fallen out of favor and trend, skater’s could adopt the shoe as their own and formulate an organic relationship with its superior performance design and image they could make their own.

The new Dunk maintained an aesthetic that combined skating with lifestyle which gave it the versatility that allowed for seamless and easy styling right from the skatepark to the street. In a market full of conventional skating shoes, a move away from the big, bulky and non-casual sneaker look in the early 2000s set them apart.


THE MET GALA
We can’t talk about current news without addressing the event of the year.

What The Oscars are to film, the Met Gala is to Fashion.

Although it seems like everyone tunes into the Gala, the question still remains:

Why does this extravagant event have such influence in the world of fashion?

The Gala is the annual fundraiser put on to celebrate The Metropolitan Museum of Art’s new exhibition in the Costume Institute. The exhibition's theme changes annually and this year’s focus was two-fold: “In America: A Lexicon of Fashion,” and “In America: An Anthology of Fashion” which will be featured throughout 2021 and 2022.

This year’s theme celebrated the best of American fashion as well as the Costume Institute’s 75th anniversary.

The Gala, which started in 1948, has become one of the most noteworthy nights of the year featuring the world’s highest achievers in all the spheres of music, film, Broadway, and fashion. When the event first began, tickets cost a mere $50 while today tickets have reached prices nearing $35,000 each.

With 500 to 700 guests handpicked by Anna Wintour, you could say the gala is arguably the most important night for the fashion world.


FUTURE IPO TO FOLLOW

Goat Group:
Private Company
Last Round of Funding: $195 MM
Valuation:$3.7 billion valuation
Backstory: Goat Group, founded in 2015 is the parent company of GOAT, a global platform that has become one of the leading and most trusted sneaker marketplace in the world. It has expanded to offer apparel and accessories from select emerging, contemporary and iconic brands. Through its unique positioning between the primary and resale markets, GOAT delivers products to over 30 million customers across 170 countries.
Current news:
- Because the Goat Group “sits at the center of everything people expect the future of high-end fashion retail to look like, investors are valuing it more like a tech stock”... which leads to belief the market cap will surpass the current $3.7B valuation.
- Grailed, a curated menswear resale platform with a focus on luxury brands, secured $60 million in the latest funding round led by Goat Group (along with personal investments by CEO of Gucci and others).
- The move signals Goat Group’s move to solidify its position in the resale market.
- Goat says it plans to work with Grailed to share expertise (specifying digital authentication skills and proficiency in peer-to-peer retail selling).


On Running:
Ticker: ONON
Exchange: NYSE (New York Stock Exchange)
Share Price: $37.34
Market Cap: $25B
Backstory: Launched in 2010, On Running is a Swiss brand founded by former Ironman Champion Olivier Bernhard. The company originally intended to produce better shoes for runners. However, recently the company has begun expanding into other areas, like all-day wear.
Current news:
- On September 15th, On Running went public officially making their business a publicly traded company with 31.1MM shares at $24 a share.
- On the company’s first day of trading, shares closed at $35 dollars for an 11% increase.
- Co-founder David Allemann told BoF the IPO will allow On to continue investing in innovation, in areas such as its cushioning and in sustainability efforts. Last year it introduced a fully recyclable shoe.
- The funds will also go toward fueling On’s international expansion focus on London and tokyo and China, where sales grew 300% in the first half of 2021.



Citations
https://www.businessoffashion.com/news/retail/on-running-surges-in-market-debut
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-14/on-running-shoemaker-s-ipo-beats-target-to-raise-746-million
https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-economy-august-2021-retail-sales-delta-variant-11631736808
https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-economy-july-2021-retail-sales-delta-variant-11629153243
https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-is-all-over-the-place-11631984968?mod=hp_featst_pos4
https://www.beyondretro.com/blogs/news/the-beyond-retro-guide-to-nike
https://hypebeast.com/2021/6/nike-sb-dunk-history-sneakers-skateboarding-basketball
https://www.vogue.com/article/what-is-the-met-gala-things-to-know-andre-leon-talley
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/met-gala-by-numbers-230720459.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFv4_X2GXr3XWHwjX5F_tE2qbuhHiGF0SbyD-0awNaBufSKqQ4JrsK7G94DBYeYaxXHRYq4xw9KFPwAGt0LsSIqw0Pdkdf_vDfac4x5sVOyT7NC0VcL-cVb-XoFhdXTv4yRnke52KibdA4KLeMVWDvjQEeldixjnMn3mLUHq1_Zy